How to validate a business idea

What counts as evidence

• Weak: someone says it's a great idea, or signs up to a free list.
• Better: someone describes the problem unprompted and tells you what they currently spend on it.
• Strong: someone commits — a deposit, a signed start date, a first payment.

Nothing before money is proof. It's all just less-wrong guessing, arranged in order.

The sequence that works

First, ten conversations with people who have the problem. Ask what they did about it last time and what it cost them — never whether they'd buy something hypothetical.

Second, one specific offer. A named outcome, a price, a start date. Vague offers get vague answers.

Third, ask for the money. The moment someone has to decide is the moment you learn something real, and it's the step almost everyone skips.

Common ways validation goes wrong

• Talking to friends, who are polite.
• Building a landing page and treating traffic as demand.
• Asking about the future instead of the past.
• Changing the idea after every conversation, so nothing is ever tested twice.

Know when you have enough

You're done validating when you can name who paid, what they paid for and why they chose now. If you can't say that, you're still guessing — even if you've been busy.